Thank you very much and welcome to the forum. If I could put it another way, these are the average crowds each club would need to get - not including Celtic or home matches against Celtic- to make up the Rangers deficit.
6984 Dundee United
4295 St Mirren
3716 Inverness CT
3642 St Johnstone
These are far from unobtainable targets. In fact of the nine clubs in the ‘Gang of Ten’ that were in the SPL in 2010-11, four of them - Hearts, Hibs, Inverness, Killie - all exceeded those figures. Four more - Aberdeen, Dundee United, St Johnstone, St Mirren - exceeded them in 2009-10. Dunfermline exceeded them the last time they played in the SPL (2006-07) before this season. Motherwell did so last in 2007-08 (in Celtic’s case they would need to return to 2008-09 levels).
In other words five of the ten met or bettered the target last season before this one (counting 2006-07 as the Pars last SPL season), four did so two seasons ago and one four years ago. Drawing just those modest few hundred of their own supporters back to every match would wipe out any financial advantage brought through the turnstiles by Rangers.
An added bonus is that increased competition is likely to bring greater numbers of travelling fans. 178 accompanied Aberdeen to Rugby Park recently, a derisory number.
Of course the TOTAL numbers would drop. That’s down to our old friend, lies, damned lies and statistics. Rangers drew 880,000 to Ibrox this season. The best supported replacement - Dundee - wouldn’t draw more than 150,000 at the absolute maximum so there would be a big overall fall, perhaps as many as 750,000. But these would all be paying customers at Ibrox. No other club would lose a penny in gate money from this and, presumably, those supporters would still be attending matches in the Third Division.
I mean, they don’t do walking away.